Ruh Lviv 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Arena L'viv to face Ruh Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv at Arena L'viv this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 0.90 for FC Kharkiv. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ruh Lviv lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Ruh Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 44% versus FC Kharkiv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 36% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.42 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.176 / defence 1.089 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.801 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.247. Data: 25 Ruh Lviv games / 25 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 29%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ruh Lviv 50% | FC Kharkiv 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.42 / FC Kharkiv 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.176 / def 1.089 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.801 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FC Kharkiv xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 44% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Ruh Lviv 1W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.18) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.80x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.77
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.50
1.09
FC Kharkiv xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.09 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 7D 12L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 8W 4D 13L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 1.12 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Kharkiv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.96 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.33 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Kharkiv have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 50%, FC Kharkiv 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ruh Lviv) and 33% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Kharkiv in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 25% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 9, as Ruh Lviv and FC Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.42 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.09 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.18 / defence 1.09 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 44% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 29%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 36%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.00 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.