Polessya 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Polessya take on LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host LNZ Cherkasy at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Polessya have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Polessya) versus 1.00 (LNZ Cherkasy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Polessya have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Polessya winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 56% versus LNZ Cherkasy 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 0.81 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.881 / defence 0.926 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.762 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.139. Data: 32 Polessya games / 32 LNZ Cherkasy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 32%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — LNZ Cherkasy's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Polessya 0.81 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.881 / def 0.926 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.762 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.80
LNZ Cherkasy xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya 0 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 33% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (4 meetings): Polessya 2W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Polessya (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Polessya's attack rating (0.88) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
35%
2.84
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Polessya xG
Total xG
1.61
0.80
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.26
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 16.0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Polessya and 0.80 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 13W 12D 7L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Polessya have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (5W 8D 3L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 7D 7L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 0.81 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 13W 12D 7L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Polessya's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.44 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Polessya or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
1
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 62%, LNZ Cherkasy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Polessya and 25% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play LNZ Cherkasy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Polessya's games and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Polessya's recent games and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Polessya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Polessya 0-2 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 0.81 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.80 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Polessya fell 0.8 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 33% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 31%, LNZ Cherkasy 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with LNZ Cherkasy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.