Polessya 0-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Polessya and Livyi Bereh meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's home record at Tsentralnyi Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Polessya's favour (2.40 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 62% versus Livyi Bereh 23%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 46% | Livyi Bereh 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.47 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.169 / defence 0.946 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.771 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.130. Data: 38 Polessya games / 9 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 52% | Draw 28% | Livyi Bereh 20%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Livyi Bereh 5.00. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 60% | Livyi Bereh 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 52% | Draw 28% | Livyi Bereh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Polessya 1.47 / Livyi Bereh 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.169 / def 0.946 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.771 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Polessya (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Livyi Bereh xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Polessya vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Livyi Bereh?
Polessya 0 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Polessya vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Polessya vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 52% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Polessya and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Polessya and Livyi Bereh in?
Polessya (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.17) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.77x) against Polessya's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 38/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.56
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.30
0.82
Livyi Bereh xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Polessya and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Polessya and 0.82 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Polessya have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 9W 4D 0L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh's form line: 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 1.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Livyi Bereh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Polessya have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Polessya are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.69 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Polessya have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 23%.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 4D 0L in their last 13 games (2.38 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Polessya's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.20 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Polessya or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Polessya
2
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Polessya have won 0, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Livyi Bereh 1-1 Polessya.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 80%, Livyi Bereh 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Polessya) and 20% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Polessya's recent matches and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Polessya's recent games and 20% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Polessya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Polessya and Livyi Bereh drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.47 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Polessya fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Livyi Bereh landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 52% | Draw 28% | Livyi Bereh 20%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 46%, Livyi Bereh 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.