Oleksandria 0-3 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Oleksandria welcome Obolon'-Brovar to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at KSK Nika this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oleksandria at 0.70 PPG versus Obolon'-Brovar's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 1 for Obolon'-Brovar and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oleksandria trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 46% versus Obolon'-Brovar 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Obolon'-Brovar 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.862 / defence 1.100 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.855 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.236. Data: 46 Oleksandria games / 46 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 33% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 37%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 33% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Oleksandria 1.08 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.862 / def 1.100 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.855 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Obolon'-Brovar xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 23 February 2026 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Oleksandria 0 - 3 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 33% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 2W | Draws 2 | Obolon'-Brovar 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.86x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.31
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.25
1.16
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.16 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 22W 12D 12L from 46 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 21L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oleksandria by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 14W 4D 5L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 7W 4D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.67 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 22W 12D 12L in their last 46 games (1.70 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Oleksandria's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.00 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Oleksandria won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 5 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 44%, Obolon'-Brovar 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Oleksandria) and 48% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Oleksandria's recent games and 48% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Obolon'-Brovar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Oleksandria 0-3 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.16 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 33% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 37%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Obolon'-Brovar 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.