Oleksandria 1-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Oleksandria at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

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Full Analysis

CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Current Form

Oleksandria's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Oleksandria at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Oleksandria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

LNZ Cherkasy have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

LNZ Cherkasy away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Oleksandria's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of LNZ Cherkasy's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Oleksandria, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2024, ended Oleksandria 2–0 LNZ Cherkasy — a Oleksandria win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 39% versus LNZ Cherkasy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 2.18 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.208 / defence 0.688 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.934 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.013. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 1.410 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Oleksandria's projected output up. Oleksandria have a tight defence (rating 0.688), which is pulling LNZ Cherkasy's projected output down. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 46 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 46.

Result probabilities: Oleksandria 71% | Draw 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 9%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.40 | Draw 4.97 | LNZ Cherkasy 11.70. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (71%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Oleksandria's last 10 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 40% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 70% (last 10 away games).

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