Oleksandria 2-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oleksandria host Livyi Bereh at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at CSC Nika this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CSC Nika this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Oleksandria are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Livyi Bereh 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 60% | Livyi Bereh 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.74 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.273 / defence 1.106 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.971 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.208. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Oleksandria games / 6 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 48% | Draw 23% | Livyi Bereh 29%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Livyi Bereh 3.45. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 50% | Livyi Bereh 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 48% | Draw 23% | Livyi Bereh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Oleksandria 1.74 / Livyi Bereh 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.273 / def 1.106 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.971 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Livyi Bereh xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Oleksandria 2 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 48% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.27x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.26
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
3.04
1.30
Livyi Bereh xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.30 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 6W 4D 0L from 10 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oleksandria by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.20 PPG overall — Oleksandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.90 scored and 1.00 conceded. Oleksandria's scoring rate against Livyi Bereh's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 30%.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Oleksandria's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 3.00 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Oleksandria's record when hosting Livyi Bereh specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
1
Draws
1
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh?
From 4 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 9 June 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 67%, Livyi Bereh 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Oleksandria) and 33% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 33% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Oleksandria's recent games and 33% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Livyi Bereh 2-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.74 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.30 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Livyi Bereh landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.27 / defence 1.11 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 48% | Draw 23% | Livyi Bereh 29%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 60%, Livyi Bereh 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.