Oleksandria 1-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to KSK Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Chornomorets (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.60 for Chornomorets. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Oleksandria register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Chornomorets in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Oleksandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 58% versus Chornomorets 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 53% | Chornomorets 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.72 xG and Chornomorets 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.510 / defence 1.066 | Chornomorets attack 1.158 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.231. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.510 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Oleksandria games / 37 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 23% | Chornomorets 34%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Chornomorets 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 70% | Chornomorets 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 23% | Chornomorets 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Oleksandria 1.72 / Chornomorets 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.510 / def 1.066 | Chornomorets attack 1.158 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Chornomorets xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kick off?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Oleksandria 1 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets part of?
Oleksandria vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 43% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Oleksandria and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
Record (2 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (1.16x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.32
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
3.24
1.52
Chornomorets xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.52 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 12D 9L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.92 PPG from 36 outings (7W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Oleksandria's home form reads 9W 3D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.06 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 15W 12D 9L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 7W 12D 17L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Chornomorets away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.88 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won 1-5 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
3
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Oleksandria, 69% for Chornomorets — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Oleksandria and 69% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Oleksandria's games and 69% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Oleksandria's matches and 69% of Chornomorets's.
Do Oleksandria and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria and Chornomorets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 20, as Oleksandria and Chornomorets drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.72 xG and Chornomorets 1.52 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.51 / defence 1.07 against Chornomorets attack 1.16 / defence 1.01, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 43% | Draw 23% | Chornomorets 34%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 53%, Chornomorets 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (36 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (36 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.