Minai 0-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Minai vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Minai and Ruh Lviv meet at Stadion Mynai in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 25 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Minai (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai at Stadion Mynai this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Minai 0W, Ruh Lviv 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Minai half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 46% versus Ruh Lviv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 27% | Ruh Lviv 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.20 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.887 / defence 0.925 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.682 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.226. Data: 45 Minai games / 44 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 46% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 24%. Fair-value odds: Minai 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Ruh Lviv 4.17. Minai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Minai at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Minai if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Minai 50% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 46% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Minai 1.20 / Ruh Lviv 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.887 / def 0.925 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.682 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Minai (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Minai xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Ruh Lviv xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Minai vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 25 May 2023 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Minai 0 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Minai vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Minai vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 46% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Minai and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Ruh Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Minai 0W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Minai and Ruh Lviv in?
Minai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Minai's attack at 0.89x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.68x) against Minai's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.32
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Minai xG
Total xG
1.97
0.77
Ruh Lviv xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Minai and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Minai and 0.77 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Minai's recent record stands at 7W 15D 22L from 44 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 19L across 44 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Minai against 1.02 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Minai have managed 3W 9D 9L from 21 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 3W 5D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Minai are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 7W 15D 22L in their last 44 games (0.82 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 15D 19L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Minai's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.86 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Minai have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Minai
5
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Ruh Lviv?
From 5 meetings on record, Minai have won 0, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2024, when Minai 1-1 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 52%, Ruh Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Minai and 33% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 33% of games; Ruh Lviv in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Minai's recent matches and 38% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Minai's recent games and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Minai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai and Ruh Lviv finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.20 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.77 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Minai fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 46% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 24%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 27%, Ruh Lviv 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Minai 0.82 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Minai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.