FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Vorskla Poltava travel to Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Monday 7 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist this season: 4W 0D 4L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava away from home this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Vorskla Poltava's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Kharkiv's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 39% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 44% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.26 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.957 / defence 1.296 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.820 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.219. Data: 18 FC Kharkiv games / 18 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Vorskla Poltava 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 50% | Vorskla Poltava 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.26 / Vorskla Poltava 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.957 / def 1.296 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.820 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Vorskla Poltava xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 36% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.96) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.75
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.56
1.30
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.30 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 6W 1D 11L from 18 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 3L across 18 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, Vorskla Poltava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Kharkiv) and 38% (Vorskla Poltava).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Kharkiv's games and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 38% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 0-0 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.26 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.30 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 38%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.