FC Kharkiv 0-2 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Kryvbas KR travel to Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 May 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kryvbas KR — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for Kryvbas KR and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Kryvbas KR trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 29% | Kryvbas KR 32%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 39% | Kryvbas KR 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.759 / defence 1.171 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.704 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.184. FC Kharkiv's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 FC Kharkiv games / 28 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 33% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Kryvbas KR 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 30% | Kryvbas KR 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 33% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.94 / Kryvbas KR 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.759 / def 1.171 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.704 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Kryvbas KR xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 2 Kryvbas KR.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 33% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.16
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.92
0.98
Kryvbas KR xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.98 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 13D 9L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (11W 5D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.11 PPG, Kryvbas KR on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 4W 4D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kryvbas KR's season.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.86 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Kharkiv have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Kryvbas KR in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Current Season
Kryvbas KR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 13D 9L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 11W 5D 12L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.23 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 0.92 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
4
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Kharkiv 31% BTTS, Kryvbas KR 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Kharkiv) and 38% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 54% of games; Kryvbas KR in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 38% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 38% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat FC Kharkiv 0-2 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.98 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 46/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 33% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 35%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 39%, Kryvbas KR 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.11 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.