FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol meet at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 4L across 8 games at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
FC Mariupol have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. FC Kharkiv's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC Mariupol's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for FC Mariupol and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Mariupol half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 39% versus FC Mariupol 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 44% | FC Mariupol 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.47 xG and FC Mariupol 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.968 / defence 1.253 | FC Mariupol attack 0.911 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.223. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC Kharkiv games / 18 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | FC Mariupol 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 50% | FC Mariupol 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.47 / FC Mariupol 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.968 / def 1.253 | FC Mariupol attack 0.911 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC Mariupol xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol part of?
FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 39% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | FC Mariupol 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against FC Mariupol's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — FC Mariupol's attack (0.91x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
39%
2.55
25%
4.01
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.86
1.40
FC Mariupol xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.40 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 6W 1D 11L from 18 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Mariupol, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 14L across 18 games — 0.44 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Mariupol's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.44 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.17 scored and 2.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or FC Mariupol away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2021, when FC Mariupol 1-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, FC Mariupol 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Kharkiv and 75% for FC Mariupol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play FC Mariupol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Kharkiv's games and 62% of FC Mariupol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Kharkiv vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 75% of FC Mariupol's.
Do FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 26, as FC Kharkiv and FC Mariupol drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.47 xG and FC Mariupol 1.40 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Mariupol landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.97 / defence 1.25 against FC Mariupol attack 0.91 / defence 1.38, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 39% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 36%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, FC Mariupol 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.