FC Kharkiv 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 37%, yet in-form Dynamo Kyiv provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist plays host to FC Kharkiv versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
FC Kharkiv (all games): 2W 0D 4L across 6 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 2W 0D 1L at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo Kyiv's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games (2.67 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.33 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dynamo Kyiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.67 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.67 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 50% versus Dynamo Kyiv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 50% | Dynamo Kyiv 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.41 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.074 / defence 1.301 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.911 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.150. Data: 6 FC Kharkiv games / 6 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dynamo Kyiv (2.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 100% | Dynamo Kyiv 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.41 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.074 / def 1.301 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.911 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Dynamo Kyiv xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 37% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 5W-1D-0L in 6 | 2.67 PPG | GF 3.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (0.91x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.45
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.77
1.36
Dynamo Kyiv xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.36 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 0D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 3.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 (2.67 PPG).
Have FC Kharkiv or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Kyiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
3
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, Dynamo Kyiv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Kharkiv) and 67% (Dynamo Kyiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv in 67%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 33% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat FC Kharkiv 0-2 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.41 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.36 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.07 / defence 1.30 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 34%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dynamo Kyiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 50%, Dynamo Kyiv 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC Kharkiv managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo Kyiv managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.