FC Kharkiv 3-2 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as FC Kharkiv welcome Chornomorets to Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.46 xG and Chornomorets 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.088 / defence 1.152 | Chornomorets attack 0.694 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 1.270. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 FC Kharkiv games / 2 Chornomorets games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 47% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Chornomorets 3.85. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Friday 6 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 47% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.46 / Chornomorets 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.088 / def 1.152 | Chornomorets attack 0.694 / def 1.388 | league avg home 0.964 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 August 2021 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
FC Kharkiv 3 - 2 Chornomorets.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 47% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (1.09) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.79
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.47
1.01
Chornomorets xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.01 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Chornomorets have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 0% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 100% of Chornomorets's.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Chornomorets 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Chornomorets 3-2 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.46 xG and Chornomorets 1.01 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chornomorets outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Chornomorets attack 0.69 / defence 1.39, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 47% | Draw 26% | Chornomorets 26%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 50%, Chornomorets 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Kharkiv scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.