Lviv 0-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lviv at 37%, yet in-form FC Kharkiv provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lviv vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion SKIF plays host to Lviv versus FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lviv have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion SKIF, Lviv have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
FC Kharkiv arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lviv 0W, FC Kharkiv 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lviv — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 49% versus FC Kharkiv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 41% | FC Kharkiv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.21 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.909 / defence 1.127 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.849 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.203. Data: 39 Lviv games / 39 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 37% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 35%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lviv are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lviv 60% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 37% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lviv 1.21 / FC Kharkiv 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.909 / def 1.127 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.849 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Lviv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Kharkiv xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Lviv 0 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Lviv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Lviv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 37% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lviv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Lviv and FC Kharkiv in?
Lviv (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.91x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.85x) against Lviv's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.58
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.36
1.15
FC Kharkiv xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lviv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lviv and 1.15 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lviv's recent record stands at 7W 9D 23L from 39 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 18L across 39 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Lviv against 1.05 for FC Kharkiv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 3W 6D 11L from 20 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 8D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lviv are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.87 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 7W 9D 23L in their last 39 games (0.77 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.75 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lviv have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
2
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Lviv 0-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 60%, FC Kharkiv 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 30% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 35% of games; FC Kharkiv in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lviv's recent matches and 30% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lviv's recent games and 30% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Lviv 0-2 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.21 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.15 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 37% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 35%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 41%, FC Kharkiv 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.77 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.