LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.

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Match Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Guide

LNZ Cherkasy — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

LNZ Cherkasy at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Shakhtar Donetsk's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.50 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended LNZ Cherkasy 0–3 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 44% | Shakhtar Donetsk 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.838 / defence 1.139 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.379 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.268. Shakhtar Donetsk bring a tight defence (rating 0.745, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling LNZ Cherkasy's projected output down. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack rating of 1.379, which lifts their away xG to 1.99. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 25 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 54.

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 12% | Draw 21% | Shakhtar Donetsk 67%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 8.69 | Draw 4.72 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 50% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 50% (last 10 away games).

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