LNZ Cherkasy 2-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 7 as LNZ Cherkasy welcome Ruh Lviv to Cherkasy Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 September 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 1W 0D 3L at Cherkasy Arena — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ruh Lviv's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of LNZ Cherkasy's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 38% versus Ruh Lviv 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Ruh Lviv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.671 / defence 1.258 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.922 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.159. LNZ Cherkasy's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 LNZ Cherkasy games / 35 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Ruh Lviv 1.92. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Ruh Lviv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 / Ruh Lviv 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.671 / def 1.258 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.922 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ruh Lviv xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 19% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
19%
5.17
29%
3.50
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.04
1.34
Ruh Lviv xG
5.17
19%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
5%
19.82
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 17.4 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.34 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 0L across 8 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.50 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv in 62%.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 0.00 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 2.33 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 5, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 33% BTTS, Ruh Lviv 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for LNZ Cherkasy and 33% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 67%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 67% of games; Ruh Lviv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as LNZ Cherkasy defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Ruh Lviv 2-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.34 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 19% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 52%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a LNZ Cherkasy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 38%, Ruh Lviv 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with LNZ Cherkasy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.