LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kudrivka make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Kudrivka's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 6L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 20% versus Kudrivka 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 13% | Kudrivka 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.51 xG and Kudrivka 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.753 / defence 0.733 | Kudrivka attack 0.717 / defence 1.742. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.367. LNZ Cherkasy's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.742 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 LNZ Cherkasy games / 13 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 18%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Kudrivka 5.56. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 20% | Kudrivka 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.51 / Kudrivka 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.753 / def 0.733 | Kudrivka attack 0.717 / def 1.742 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Kudrivka xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 0 Kudrivka.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 56% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.75) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.74), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.72x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.84
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.23
0.72
Kudrivka xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
4%
25.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.72 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 15 games, going 8W 4D 3L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (5W 2D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.27 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Kudrivka in 67%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kudrivka away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.57 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.43 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Kudrivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 43% (Kudrivka) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for LNZ Cherkasy and 57% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 57% of games; Kudrivka in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 43% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 57% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kudrivka tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Kudrivka 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Kudrivka 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.51 xG and Kudrivka 0.72 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.75 / defence 0.73 against Kudrivka attack 0.72 / defence 1.74, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 18%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 13%, Kudrivka 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kudrivka's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.