LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karpaty at 39%, yet in-form LNZ Cherkasy provide a compelling counter-argument — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karpaty make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 3 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cherkasy Arena, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — LNZ Cherkasy lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Karpaty winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Karpaty — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 42% versus Karpaty 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Karpaty 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Karpaty 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.776 / defence 0.700 | Karpaty attack 1.142 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.280. LNZ Cherkasy's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 LNZ Cherkasy games / 40 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 33% | Karpaty 39%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Karpaty 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form LNZ Cherkasy (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karpaty if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 20% | Karpaty 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 33% | Karpaty 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 / Karpaty 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.776 / def 0.700 | Karpaty attack 1.142 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Karpaty xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 1 Karpaty.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 27% chance of winning, Karpaty a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Karpaty 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Karpaty (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (1.14x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
27%
3.66
33%
2.99
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.83
1.02
Karpaty xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.4 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.02 for Karpaty, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 12D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karpaty sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (15W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.45 for Karpaty. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Karpaty have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.42 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Karpaty in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 15W 13D 12L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Karpaty away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.37 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.26 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Karpaty in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karpaty won 3-0 on 10 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Karpaty — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
3
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty?
From 5 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Karpaty have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Karpaty 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 37%, Karpaty 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 47% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Karpaty in 32%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 37% of games; Karpaty in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 53% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 47% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karpaty edge out LNZ Cherkasy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Karpaty 1.02 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.78 / defence 0.70 against Karpaty attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 33% | Karpaty 39%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 28%, Karpaty 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.27 PPG, Karpaty 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.