LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets meet at Stadion Kolos in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Kolos this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Chornomorets (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (2.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Chornomorets and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 46% versus Chornomorets 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Chornomorets 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.43 xG and Chornomorets 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.073 / defence 0.997 | Chornomorets attack 0.760 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.134. Data: 37 LNZ Cherkasy games / 37 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 23%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Chornomorets 4.35. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Chornomorets 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.43 / Chornomorets 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.073 / def 0.997 | Chornomorets attack 0.760 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Chornomorets xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 50% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (1.07) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.76x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
50%
1.98
27%
3.71
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.29
0.86
Chornomorets xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
18.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.86 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 14W 10D 13L from 37 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 23L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.03 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 3W 1D 13L across 17 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.11 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 12W 2D 23L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Chornomorets away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.59 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets?
From 4 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 47%, Chornomorets 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 41% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games; Chornomorets in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 41% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 41% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 8, as LNZ Cherkasy and Chornomorets drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.43 xG and Chornomorets 0.86 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Chornomorets attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Draw 27% | Chornomorets 23%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 43%, Chornomorets 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Chornomorets's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.41 PPG, Chornomorets 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.