Livyi Bereh 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv encounter.

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Analysis

Ruh Lviv make the trip to Stadion Livyi Bereh to face Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Livyi Bereh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Livyi Bereh at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Ruh Lviv have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ruh Lviv are 0.70 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Ruh Lviv edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Livyi Bereh 0–1 Ruh Lviv — a Ruh Lviv win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 28% of Livyi Bereh's games and 38% of Ruh Lviv's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 31% | Ruh Lviv 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.818 / defence 1.279 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.003 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.012. Livyi Bereh's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from Livyi Bereh's last 28 games and Ruh Lviv's last 58.

Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 44%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.62 | Draw 3.55 | Ruh Lviv 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Livyi Bereh's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Livyi Bereh 40% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 away games).

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