Livyi Bereh 1-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Livyi Bereh and Polessya meet at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Livyi Bereh (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Livyi Bereh this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Polessya have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Polessya have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Polessya are 0.50 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh in recent Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Livyi Bereh, 0 for Polessya and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 18% versus Polessya 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 22% | Polessya 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG and Polessya 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.708 / defence 1.145 | Polessya attack 1.030 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.002. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Livyi Bereh games / 54 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 30% | Polessya 44%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Polessya 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Polessya are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 20% | Polessya 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 30% | Polessya 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.82 / Polessya 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.708 / def 1.145 | Polessya attack 1.030 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Polessya (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Polessya xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Polessya kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Polessya kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Polessya?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 1 Polessya.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Polessya part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 26% chance of winning, Polessya a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Polessya?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 1 | Polessya 0W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Polessya in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Polessya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.71x the league average against Polessya's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.03x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 23/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
26%
3.89
30%
3.32
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.01
1.18
Polessya xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.18 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 6D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Polessya sit at 1.78 PPG from 27 outings (13W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Livyi Bereh's home form reads 4W 3D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Polessya have taken 1.71 points per game from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.44 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: Polessya in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Polessya in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Polessya have gone 13W 9D 5L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.07 PPG; Polessya away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Polessya in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
2
Draws
0
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Polessya?
From 3 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, Polessya have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-0 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Polessya?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 21%, Polessya 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Livyi Bereh) and 43% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Polessya in 43%; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 50% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 43% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Polessya tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Polessya in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh and Polessya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh and Polessya finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG and Polessya 1.18 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 30% | Polessya 44%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 22%, Polessya 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did.
Polessya's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.