Kudrivka 0-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kudrivka and Veres Rivne meet at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kudrivka's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's home record at Obolon Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kudrivka are significantly better at Obolon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Veres Rivne (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kudrivka 0W, Veres Rivne 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Veres Rivne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kudrivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 67% versus Veres Rivne 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 57% | Veres Rivne 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.18 xG and Veres Rivne 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.001 / defence 1.233 | Veres Rivne attack 0.878 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.228. Data: 19 Kudrivka games / 48 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 33% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 40%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Veres Rivne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 90% | Veres Rivne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 33% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Kudrivka 1.18 / Veres Rivne 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.001 / def 1.233 | Veres Rivne attack 0.878 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Veres Rivne xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne?
Kudrivka 0 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne part of?
Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 33% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kudrivka and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Kudrivka 0W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and Veres Rivne in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 1.00x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.88x) against Kudrivka's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 19/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.73
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.51
1.33
Veres Rivne xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.33 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kudrivka come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 5D 10L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Kudrivka against 1.05 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kudrivka's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kudrivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kudrivka are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.86 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Veres Rivne away?
Kudrivka's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.50 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
1
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Veres Rivne?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Kudrivka 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 90% for Kudrivka, 40% for Veres Rivne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Kudrivka and 40% for Veres Rivne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Veres Rivne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Kudrivka's games and 40% of Veres Rivne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Kudrivka's matches and 40% of Veres Rivne's.
Do Kudrivka and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kudrivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Kudrivka and Veres Rivne drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.18 xG and Veres Rivne 1.33 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kudrivka fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Veres Rivne attack 0.88 / defence 0.99, drawn from 19/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 33% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 40%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 57%, Veres Rivne 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 1.10 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.