Kudrivka 1-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Shakhtar Donetsk travel to Obolon Arena to take on Kudrivka. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's home record at Obolon Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kudrivka, 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 58% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.86 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.789 / defence 1.178 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.264 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.206. Kudrivka's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Kudrivka games / 54 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 18% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kudrivka 70% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 18% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Kudrivka 0.86 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.789 / def 1.178 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.264 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Kudrivka 1 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 18% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (1 meetings): Kudrivka 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 0.79x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
18%
5.65
23%
4.37
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.66
1.79
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.65
18%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
3%
34.03
25%
3.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.79 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Kudrivka have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 6D 14L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 18W 7D 1L from 26 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kudrivka.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kudrivka have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 6D 0L from 13 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kudrivka are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.35 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 18W 7D 1L in their last 26 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.23 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kudrivka's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
2
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 3 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Kudrivka 5-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 77%, Shakhtar Donetsk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Kudrivka) and 46% (Shakhtar Donetsk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Kudrivka's games and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kudrivka's matches and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Kudrivka and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Kudrivka 1-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.86 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 18% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 50%, Shakhtar Donetsk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.