Kudrivka 2-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kudrivka host Ruh Lviv at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 14 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kudrivka — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Obolon Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Kudrivka) versus 0.20 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kudrivka, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–4 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 7% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 59% versus Ruh Lviv 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 48% | Ruh Lviv 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.796 / defence 1.226 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.569 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.259. Kudrivka's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Kudrivka games / 57 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Ruh Lviv 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kudrivka are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 70% | Ruh Lviv 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Kudrivka 1.12 / Ruh Lviv 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.796 / def 1.226 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.569 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ruh Lviv xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Kudrivka 2 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 40% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Kudrivka 0W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kudrivka's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
40%
2.51
33%
3.02
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.00
0.88
Ruh Lviv xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kudrivka and 0.88 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Kudrivka have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 6W 7D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 6W 4D 19L from 29 games, 0.76 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kudrivka on 0.86 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kudrivka have posted 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 1D 10L from 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kudrivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kudrivka are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.66 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 6W 4D 19L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kudrivka's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.14 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Kudrivka 2-1 Ruh Lviv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 79%, Ruh Lviv 7% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Kudrivka) and 21% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv in 79%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 79% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 7% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kudrivka vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Kudrivka's recent games and 21% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kudrivka edge out Ruh Lviv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat Ruh Lviv 2-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.57 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 48%, Ruh Lviv 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 0.86 PPG, Ruh Lviv 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kudrivka win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.