Kudrivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Kudrivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 18 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kudrivka have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Kudrivka's home record at Obolon Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, LNZ Cherkasy are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kudrivka lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 60% versus LNZ Cherkasy 23%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kudrivka 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.69 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.865 / defence 1.225 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.067 / defence 0.628. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.280. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.628 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Kudrivka games / 58 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 14% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 60%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 7.14 | Draw 3.85 | LNZ Cherkasy 1.67. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 70% | LNZ Cherkasy 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 14% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG Kudrivka 0.69 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.865 / def 1.225 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.067 / def 0.628 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.67
LNZ Cherkasy xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 18 May 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Kudrivka 1 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 14% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Kudrivka 0W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 0.86x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.07x) against Kudrivka's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
14%
7.20
26%
3.83
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.36
1.67
LNZ Cherkasy xG
7.20
14%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
3%
38.35
30%
3.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.67 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kudrivka's recent record stands at 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 5L across 30 games — 1.97 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours LNZ Cherkasy by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kudrivka heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kudrivka have managed 5W 4D 5L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 9W 3D 2L across 14 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kudrivka are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.30 scored and 0.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; LNZ Cherkasy in 23%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Current Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 17W 8D 5L in their last 30 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.36 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Kudrivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 79%, LNZ Cherkasy 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Kudrivka) and 36% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 79% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kudrivka vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Kudrivka's recent games and 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kudrivka defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.69 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.67 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.07 / defence 0.63, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 14% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 60%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Kudrivka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 50%, LNZ Cherkasy 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Kudrivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.