Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kolos Kovalivka face Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ruh Lviv travel to Stadion Kolos to take on Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Monday 7 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kolos Kovalivka stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ruh Lviv away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kolos Kovalivka 0.90 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Kolos Kovalivka, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 Ruh Lviv — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 31% versus Ruh Lviv 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 19% | Ruh Lviv 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kolos Kovalivka surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Ruh Lviv have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.77 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.726 / defence 1.051 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.927 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 0.878. Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 52 games and Ruh Lviv's last 52.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 35%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.31 | Draw 2.87 | Ruh Lviv 2.87. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Kolos Kovalivka's lower xG of 0.77 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 1.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 40% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Monday 7 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% (Under 78%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.77 / Ruh Lviv 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.726 / def 1.051 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.927 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.185 / away 0.878 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Monday 7 April 2025 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 30% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (78%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 52 games and Ruh Lviv's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
35%
2.87
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.63
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 16.8 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.86 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 20D 21L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 18W 21D 13L from 52 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kolos Kovalivka.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 0.92 PPG from their last 26 home games (4W 12D 10L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 10D 6L from their last 26 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.27 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 11W 20D 21L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 21D 13L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 0.92 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
4
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 27%, Ruh Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Kolos Kovalivka and 35% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 38%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 58% of games; Ruh Lviv in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 35% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 65% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Kolos Kovalivka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.77 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.73 / defence 1.05 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 35%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 19%, Ruh Lviv 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.