Karpaty 1-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Karpaty welcome FC Kharkiv to Ukraina Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Karpaty have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty at Ukraina Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 4D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Karpaty at 1.70 PPG versus FC Kharkiv's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Karpaty in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 60% versus FC Kharkiv 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karpaty 47% | FC Kharkiv 13%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.02 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 1.006 / defence 1.080 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.868 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.307. Data: 42 Karpaty games / 12 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 31% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 41%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | FC Kharkiv 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Karpaty 70% | FC Kharkiv 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 31% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Karpaty 1.02 / FC Kharkiv 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 1.006 / def 1.080 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.868 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Kharkiv xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv?
Karpaty 1 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 31% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Karpaty and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karpaty and FC Kharkiv in?
Karpaty (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Karpaty's attack rating (1.01) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.50
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.25
1.23
FC Kharkiv xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Karpaty and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Karpaty and 1.23 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karpaty's recent record stands at 5W 6D 4L from 15 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 3L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karpaty on 1.40 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karpaty have managed 1W 4D 3L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.40 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 4D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karpaty are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.07 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karpaty have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 0.88 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Karpaty or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Karpaty
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and FC Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when FC Kharkiv 2-2 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 62%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Karpaty and 12% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Karpaty's games and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karpaty vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karpaty's recent games and 12% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Karpaty 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Karpaty 1-2 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.02 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.23 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 31% | Draw 29% | FC Kharkiv 41%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 47%, FC Kharkiv 13%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.40 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.