Inhulets 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Inhulets welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to Stadion Zirka. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Inhulets at Stadion Zirka this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 5W 2D 0L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (2.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 7 games (71%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Inhulets have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Inhulets in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 43% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.60 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.689 / defence 1.120 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.222 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.226. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Inhulets games / 15 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Inhulets 13% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 33% | Shakhtar Donetsk 29% BTTS from recent games.

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