Inhulets 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Inhulets to take on Inhulets. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 May 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets at Stadion Inhulets this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Inhulets are significantly better at Stadion Inhulets than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Inhulets 0.80 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Inhulets's 30% rate and FC Kharkiv's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Inhulets have won 0, FC Kharkiv 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Inhulets trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Kharkiv trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus FC Kharkiv 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 43% | FC Kharkiv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.87 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.677 / defence 0.921 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.749 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.219. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Inhulets games / 45 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 34% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 32%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | FC Kharkiv 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — FC Kharkiv's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 30% | FC Kharkiv 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Thursday 25 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 34% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Inhulets 0.87 / FC Kharkiv 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.677 / def 0.921 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.749 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC Kharkiv xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 25 May 2023 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Inhulets 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 34% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Inhulets and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 2W.
What form are Inhulets and FC Kharkiv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.68) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
34%
2.95
34%
2.95
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.71
0.84
FC Kharkiv xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 15.2 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Inhulets and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.84 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 10D 24L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.05 PPG from 44 outings (11W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.91 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Inhulets's home form reads 7W 3D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (4W 9D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.84 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 10W 10D 24L in their last 44 games (0.91 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Inhulets's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.09 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Inhulets or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Inhulets
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and FC Kharkiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Inhulets 0-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Inhulets 36% BTTS, FC Kharkiv 32%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Inhulets and 32% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 32%; Inhulets have failed to score in 41% of games; FC Kharkiv in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Inhulets's recent matches and 32% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Inhulets's recent games and 32% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 28, as Inhulets and FC Kharkiv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.87 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.84 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inhulets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.68 / defence 0.92 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 34% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 32%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 43%, FC Kharkiv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.91 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.