Kryvbas KR 2-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Kryvbas KR (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 25% versus LNZ Cherkasy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 25% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.008 / defence 0.916 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.122 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.203. Data: 32 Kryvbas KR games / 2 LNZ Cherkasy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 38%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.17 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.008 / def 0.916 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.122 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.24
LNZ Cherkasy xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 35% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.01) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.12x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.62
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.24 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 0D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.75 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 25%, LNZ Cherkasy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Kryvbas KR) and 50% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.17 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 35% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 38%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kryvbas KR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 25%, LNZ Cherkasy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.50 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.