FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as FC Mariupol welcome Veres Rivne to Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Mariupol have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 9L across 9 games at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Veres Rivne — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Mariupol have won 0, Veres Rivne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Veres Rivne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Mariupol in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Mariupol 61% versus Veres Rivne 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 72% | Veres Rivne 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.13 xG and Veres Rivne 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.864 / defence 1.414 | Veres Rivne attack 0.747 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.224. Data: 18 FC Mariupol games / 18 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 32% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Veres Rivne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: FC Mariupol 56% | Veres Rivne 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 32% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Mariupol 1.13 / Veres Rivne 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.864 / def 1.414 | Veres Rivne attack 0.747 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Veres Rivne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne part of?
FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 32% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): FC Mariupol 0W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Mariupol's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus FC Mariupol's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.65
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.42
1.29
Veres Rivne xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.29 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Mariupol come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 2D 14L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of FC Mariupol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Mariupol's home form reads 0W 0D 9L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.44 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.83 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Veres Rivne in 22%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 games (0.44 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.78 PPG.
Have FC Mariupol or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Mariupol have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2021, when Veres Rivne 2-0 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 56%, Veres Rivne 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for FC Mariupol and 56% for Veres Rivne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 33%; FC Mariupol have failed to score in 44% of games; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 22% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Mariupol vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of FC Mariupol's matches and 56% of Veres Rivne's.
Do FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Mariupol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Mariupol and Veres Rivne finished level at 0-0 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 1.13 xG and Veres Rivne 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Mariupol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.86 / defence 1.41 against Veres Rivne attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 32% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 40%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 72%, Veres Rivne 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.78 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.