Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Veres Rivne travel to Tonkocheyev Stadium to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tonkocheyev Stadium, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tonkocheyev Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are significantly better at Tonkocheyev Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 20% and Veres Rivne's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Veres Rivne 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% versus Veres Rivne 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Veres Rivne 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.25 xG and Veres Rivne 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.001 / defence 0.912 | Veres Rivne attack 0.781 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.168. Data: 32 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 32 Veres Rivne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 45% | Draw 32% | Veres Rivne 23%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Veres Rivne 4.35. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Veres Rivne lead the H2H ledger, but Epitsentr Dunayivtsi carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | Veres Rivne 10% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 45% | Draw 32% | Veres Rivne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.25 / Veres Rivne 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.001 / def 0.912 | Veres Rivne attack 0.781 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Veres Rivne xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 45% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
Record (4 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 2 | Veres Rivne 2W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (1.00) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
45%
2.24
32%
3.10
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.08
0.83
Veres Rivne xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.83 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 8D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 0.97 PPG from 32 outings (7W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.09 PPG, Veres Rivne on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 5W 4D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.84 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 7W 10D 15L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Veres Rivne away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.19 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
From 5 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44% BTTS, Veres Rivne 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 31% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 31%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 31% of games; Veres Rivne in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 25% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 31% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne finished level at 0-0 at Tonkocheyev Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.25 xG and Veres Rivne 0.83 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 45% | Draw 32% | Veres Rivne 23%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%, Veres Rivne 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.09 PPG, Veres Rivne 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.