Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% versus Ruh Lviv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60% | Ruh Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.20 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.152 / defence 1.195 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.677 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.192. Data: 19 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 49 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 29%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Ruh Lviv 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60% | Ruh Lviv 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.20 / Ruh Lviv 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.152 / def 1.195 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.677 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ruh Lviv xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 41% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 1.15x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.68x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.43
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.17
0.96
Ruh Lviv xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.96 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 5W 3D 12L from 20 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 12L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi against 1.00 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have managed 1W 2D 7L from 10 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.90 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 3W 1D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.80 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.50 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 60% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 10% (Ruh Lviv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 10% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 30% of games; Ruh Lviv in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 10% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 10% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Ruh Lviv 2-0 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.20 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.96 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.68 / defence 0.88, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 29%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%, Ruh Lviv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.90 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win broke the near-deadlock. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.