Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Kudrivka to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) versus 0.70 (Kudrivka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for Kudrivka and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Kudrivka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41% versus Kudrivka 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59% | Kudrivka 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.67 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.176 / defence 1.096 | Kudrivka attack 0.796 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.228. Data: 21 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 21 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 24%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Kudrivka 4.17. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Kudrivka 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.67 / Kudrivka 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.176 / def 1.096 | Kudrivka attack 0.796 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kudrivka xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1 - 0 Kudrivka.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 51% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Record (1 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Kudrivka (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (1.18) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
51%
1.94
24%
4.12
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.75
1.07
Kudrivka xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
21.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.07 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 3D 13L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 0.95 PPG, Kudrivka on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 2W 2D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.14 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 6W 3D 13L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Kudrivka away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record (0.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.73 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
From 3 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54%, Kudrivka 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 36% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 27% of games; Kudrivka in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 46% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 36% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi edge out Kudrivka 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Kudrivka 1-0 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.67 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kudrivka landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Kudrivka attack 0.80 / defence 1.17, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 24%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59%, Kudrivka 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kudrivka's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.95 PPG, Kudrivka 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win broke the near-deadlock. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.