Dynamo Kyiv 1-2 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host SK Poltava at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 December 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dynamo Kyiv are significantly better at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Poltava stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Poltava's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Premier League this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
SK Poltava in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo Kyiv 77% and SK Poltava 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dynamo Kyiv 69% | SK Poltava 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 2.75 xG and SK Poltava 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.371 / defence 0.847 | SK Poltava attack 0.771 / defence 1.790. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.307. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.790 — this is suppressing Dynamo Kyiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Dynamo Kyiv games / 13 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 77% | Draw 14% | SK Poltava 9%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | SK Poltava 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 50% | SK Poltava 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Monday 1 Dec 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 77% | Draw 14% | SK Poltava 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 54% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 2.75 / SK Poltava 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.371 / def 0.847 | SK Poltava attack 0.771 / def 1.790 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.85
SK Poltava xG
54%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 1 December 2025 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 2 SK Poltava.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 77% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. SK Poltava (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dynamo Kyiv's attack rating (1.37) and SK Poltava's defence rating (1.79), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SK Poltava's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
77%
1.30
14%
7.07
9%
11.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
3.60
0.85
SK Poltava xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.07
14%
Draw
11.19
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
6%
15.61
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
1%
174.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.85 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Dynamo Kyiv have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 5W 5D 3L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Poltava's form line: 1W 3D 9L from 13 games, 0.46 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dynamo Kyiv are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SK Poltava.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, SK Poltava have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SK Poltava are on 0.85 scored and 2.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; SK Poltava in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while SK Poltava have gone 1W 3D 9L in their last 13 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or SK Poltava away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.60 PPG; SK Poltava away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dynamo Kyiv
0
Draws
1
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 1, SK Poltava have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SK Poltava 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 60%, SK Poltava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dynamo Kyiv and 60% for SK Poltava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Poltava in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play SK Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's games and 60% of SK Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs SK Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's matches and 60% of SK Poltava's.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and SK Poltava tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SK Poltava in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Poltava defy the odds to beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Poltava beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-2 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 2.75 xG and SK Poltava 0.85 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SK Poltava outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.37 / defence 0.85 against SK Poltava attack 0.77 / defence 1.79, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 77% | Draw 14% | SK Poltava 9%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a SK Poltava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 69%, SK Poltava 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
SK Poltava's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.46. Form was overturned, with SK Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.