Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Oleksandria at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 6W 1D 0L from 7 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.71 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.14 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.29 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 7 games (71%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Dynamo Kyiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 4W 0D 0L at NSK Olimpijs'kyj — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 4.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 4 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oleksandria stand at 4W 2D 1L from 7 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 0.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's away record: 3W 2D 1L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (1.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
On current form, Dynamo Kyiv have the edge — a 0.71 PPG advantage (2.71 vs 2.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 29% versus Oleksandria 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 57% | Oleksandria 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 2.25 xG and Oleksandria 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.967 / defence 0.727 | Oleksandria attack 0.824 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.231. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.967 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 7 Dynamo Kyiv games / 7 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 72% | Draw 18% | Oleksandria 11%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Oleksandria 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 0% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 72% | Draw 18% | Oleksandria 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 47% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 2.25 / Oleksandria 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.967 / def 0.727 | Oleksandria attack 0.824 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Oleksandria xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 72% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-1D-0L in 7 | 2.71 PPG | GF 3.14 / GA 0.29 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.97x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 3-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.69
11%
9.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.99
0.74
Oleksandria xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
9.37
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
11%
9.50
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
1%
89.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.74 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 6W 1D 0L from 7 games, a 2.71 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oleksandria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 3.14 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.14 scored and 0.71 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's scoring rate against Oleksandria's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their games; Oleksandria in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 games (2.71 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Oleksandria away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 3.00 PPG; Oleksandria away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
0
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
From 9 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, Oleksandria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 0%, Oleksandria 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dynamo Kyiv and 50% for Oleksandria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 75% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dynamo Kyiv's matches and 50% of Oleksandria's.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dynamo Kyiv edge out Oleksandria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 1-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 2.25 xG and Oleksandria 0.74 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Kyiv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.97 / defence 0.73 against Oleksandria attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 72% | Draw 18% | Oleksandria 11%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 57%, Oleksandria 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oleksandria's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 2.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 4.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.