Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Mariupol make the trip to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to face Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dynamo Kyiv's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this season: 6W 2D 1L from 9 home games — 2.22 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NSK Olimpijs'kyj. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Mariupol have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.30 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of FC Mariupol's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dynamo Kyiv lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dynamo Kyiv — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
FC Mariupol — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 39% versus FC Mariupol 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 50% | FC Mariupol 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.63 xG and FC Mariupol 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.095 / defence 1.028 | FC Mariupol attack 0.904 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.224. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Dynamo Kyiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Dynamo Kyiv games / 18 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 49% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 27%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | FC Mariupol 3.70. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo Kyiv 22% | FC Mariupol 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 49% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.63 / FC Mariupol 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.095 / def 1.028 | FC Mariupol attack 0.904 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Mariupol xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 49% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | FC Mariupol 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.09x the league average against FC Mariupol's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Mariupol's attack (0.90x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.07
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.77
1.14
FC Mariupol xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
5%
19.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.14 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 18 games, going 14W 3D 1L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Mariupol sit at 0.44 PPG from 18 outings (2W 2D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.06 PPG clear of FC Mariupol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Mariupol have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L). That's actually stronger than their 0.44 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.61 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.17 scored and 2.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol in 61%.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 14W 3D 1L in their last 18 games (2.50 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or FC Mariupol away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.22 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Dynamo Kyiv
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2021, when FC Mariupol 2-3 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 22%, FC Mariupol 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 67% (FC Mariupol). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play FC Mariupol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 67% of FC Mariupol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Dynamo Kyiv's matches and 67% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dynamo Kyiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 28, as Dynamo Kyiv and FC Mariupol drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.63 xG and FC Mariupol 1.14 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Mariupol landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against FC Mariupol attack 0.90 / defence 1.35, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 49% | Draw 25% | FC Mariupol 27%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 50%, FC Mariupol 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.