Desna 1-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Desna at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Desna vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Desna and FC Kharkiv meet at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Desna's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Desna have gone 4W 0D 1L this season (5 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Kharkiv have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.12 in Desna's favour (2.00 vs 0.88) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Desna have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, FC Kharkiv in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Desna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 38% versus FC Kharkiv 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 75% | FC Kharkiv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.14 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.965 / defence 1.129 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.470 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.247. Data: 8 Desna games / 8 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Desna 47% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 21%. Fair-value odds: Desna 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 4.76. Desna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — FC Kharkiv's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Desna 20% | FC Kharkiv 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 47% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Desna 1.14 / FC Kharkiv 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.965 / def 1.129 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.470 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Desna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Desna xG
Expected Goals
0.66
FC Kharkiv xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Desna vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs FC Kharkiv?
Desna 1 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Desna vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Desna vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 47% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Desna and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Desna and FC Kharkiv in?
Desna (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Desna's attack rating (0.96) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.47x) against Desna's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.18
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Desna xG
Total xG
1.81
0.66
FC Kharkiv xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Desna and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Desna and 0.66 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Desna come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 1D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Desna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Desna's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Kharkiv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Desna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Desna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Desna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Desna and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Desna's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 2.25 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Desna or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Desna
0
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and FC Kharkiv?
From 1 meetings on record, Desna have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Desna and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Desna 1-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Desna and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Desna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Kharkiv tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Desna) and 0% (FC Kharkiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Desna and 0% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Desna play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Desna's recent matches and 0% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Desna vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Desna's recent games and 0% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Desna and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Desna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Desna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Desna 1-2 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.14 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.66 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Kharkiv outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.47 / defence 1.11, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 47% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 21%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a FC Kharkiv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 75%, FC Kharkiv 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with FC Kharkiv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.