Desna vs Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Desna vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv plays host to Desna versus Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Desna (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Desna are significantly better at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv than their overall form suggests.
Lviv have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lviv have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Desna, 1.40 for Lviv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Desna 1W, Lviv 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Desna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Desna half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 44% versus Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 56% | Lviv 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.34 xG and Lviv 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.982 / defence 1.217 | Lviv attack 0.802 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Desna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Desna games / 18 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Desna 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: Desna 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Lviv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Desna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Desna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Desna 44% | Lviv 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Desna 1.34 / Lviv 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.982 / def 1.217 | Lviv attack 0.802 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Desna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lviv xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs Lviv kick off?
Desna vs Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
Where is Desna vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Lviv part of?
Desna vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 40% chance of winning, Lviv a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Desna and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Desna 1W | Draws 0 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Desna and Lviv in?
Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Desna's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.80x) against Desna's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.75
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Desna xG
Total xG
2.54
1.20
Lviv xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Desna and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Desna and 1.20 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Desna's recent record stands at 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 9L across 18 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Desna by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Desna have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lviv's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Desna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Desna and Lviv in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or Lviv away?
Desna's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 1.38 PPG; Lviv away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Desna or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lviv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Desna
0
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Lviv?
From 1 meetings on record, Desna have won 1, Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Lviv 0-2 Desna.
Who has won more matches between Desna and Lviv?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 50%, Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Desna) and 38% (Lviv).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Desna play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Desna's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Desna vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Desna's recent games and 38% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Desna and Lviv tend to score early?
Desna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lviv in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Desna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna and Lviv finished level at 0-0 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.34 xG and Lviv 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Desna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 56%, Lviv 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.