Desna 3-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Desna take on Chornomorets.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Chornomorets travel to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv to take on Desna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 0.87 xG and Chornomorets 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Chornomorets attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 0.764. Data: 0 Desna games / 0 Chornomorets games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Desna 32% | Draw 43% | Chornomorets 25%. Fair-value odds: Desna 3.12 | Draw 2.33 | Chornomorets 4.00. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Chornomorets's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 32% | Draw 43% | Chornomorets 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 34% | xG Desna 0.87 / Chornomorets 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Chornomorets attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.888 / away 0.764 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Desna xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Chornomorets xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs Chornomorets kick off?
Desna vs Chornomorets kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs Chornomorets?
Desna 3 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Desna vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Chornomorets part of?
Desna vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 32% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 25% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Desna and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Chornomorets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Desna and Chornomorets in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Desna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Desna's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
43%
2.34
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Desna xG
Total xG
1.61
0.75
Chornomorets xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 14.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Desna and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Desna and 0.75 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Pre-Season
Chornomorets
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Desna
0
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Chornomorets?
From 2 meetings on record, Desna have won 2, Chornomorets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Chornomorets 0-1 Desna.
Who has won more matches between Desna and Chornomorets?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Desna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat Chornomorets 3-0 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 0.87 xG and Chornomorets 0.75 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Desna beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Chornomorets attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 32% | Draw 43% | Chornomorets 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Desna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.