Chornomorets 0-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova plays host to Chornomorets versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chornomorets haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Chornomorets have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Veres Rivne (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Veres Rivne haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Chornomorets, 1.20 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chornomorets, 1 for Veres Rivne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Veres Rivne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 61% versus Veres Rivne 22%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 72% | Veres Rivne 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.22 xG and Veres Rivne 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.003 / defence 1.060 | Veres Rivne attack 0.984 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 0.999. Data: 18 Chornomorets games / 18 Veres Rivne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 37% | Draw 35% | Veres Rivne 28%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Veres Rivne 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | Veres Rivne 22% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (18 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 37% | Draw 35% | Veres Rivne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Chornomorets 1.22 / Veres Rivne 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.003 / def 1.060 | Veres Rivne attack 0.984 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.204 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Veres Rivne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 23 August 2022 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne part of?
Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 37% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chornomorets and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 1.00x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.98x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
37%
2.72
35%
2.83
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.26
1.04
Veres Rivne xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.04 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 3W 5D 10L from 18 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. Chornomorets haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 7L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. Veres Rivne haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 2W 3D 4L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's season.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.83 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Veres Rivne in 22%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Pre-Season
Veres Rivne
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Veres Rivne away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
5
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Veres Rivne 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 67%, Veres Rivne 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chornomorets) and 56% (Veres Rivne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 33%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 22% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Chornomorets's matches and 56% of Veres Rivne's.
Do Chornomorets and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Veres Rivne defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.22 xG and Veres Rivne 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Veres Rivne attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/18 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 37% | Draw 35% | Veres Rivne 28%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Veres Rivne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 72%, Veres Rivne 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.