Chornomorets 0-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Chornomorets, Chornomorets have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Chornomorets. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
Veres Rivne (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Chornomorets, 0.70 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Chornomorets, 3 for Veres Rivne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Veres Rivne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 51% versus Veres Rivne 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 51% | Veres Rivne 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.23 xG and Veres Rivne 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.993 / defence 1.052 | Veres Rivne attack 0.781 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.126. Data: 49 Chornomorets games / 49 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 43% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 28%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Veres Rivne 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Veres Rivne 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 43% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Chornomorets 1.23 / Veres Rivne 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.993 / def 1.052 | Veres Rivne attack 0.781 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Veres Rivne xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne part of?
Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 43% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chornomorets and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
Record (4 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 3W.
What form are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.99x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.78x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.42
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.15
0.93
Veres Rivne xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.93 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 16W 10D 23L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 26L across 49 games — 0.84 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Chornomorets against 0.84 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 3W 6D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chornomorets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.12 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 16W 10D 23L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 9W 14D 26L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Veres Rivne away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.13 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
5
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Veres Rivne 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 39%, Veres Rivne 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chornomorets) and 35% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 35% of games; Veres Rivne in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 39% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chornomorets's recent games and 35% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Veres Rivne defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.23 xG and Veres Rivne 0.93 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 43% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 28%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Veres Rivne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 51%, Veres Rivne 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.18 PPG, Veres Rivne 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.