Chornomorets 1-1 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Lviv at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 0W 2D 3L at Stadion Chornomorets — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Lviv — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus Lviv's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Lviv in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 54% versus Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 82% | Lviv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.99 xG and Lviv 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.714 / defence 1.407 | Lviv attack 0.796 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.166. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Chornomorets games / 11 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 29% | Lviv 43%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Lviv 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lviv at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 29% | Lviv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Chornomorets 0.99 / Lviv 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.714 / def 1.407 | Lviv attack 0.796 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Lviv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lviv xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Chornomorets 1 - 1 Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 28% chance of winning, Lviv a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chornomorets and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Lviv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Lviv (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.71) and Lviv's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
28%
3.58
29%
3.50
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.30
1.31
Lviv xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
13.21
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.31 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 3D 7L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.55 PPG, Lviv on 0.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Lviv have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Lviv away?
Lviv's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.50 PPG; Lviv away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Lviv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Lviv?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 50% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 50% of games; Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 50% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Lviv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lviv in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets and Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets and Lviv finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.99 xG and Lviv 1.31 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.71 / defence 1.41 against Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 28% | Draw 29% | Lviv 43%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 82%, Lviv 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lviv's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.55 PPG, Lviv 0.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.