Chornomorets 0-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 2 December 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Kryvbas KR are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 43% versus Kryvbas KR 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 43% | Kryvbas KR 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.99 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.691 / defence 1.179 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.753 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.161. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Chornomorets games / 14 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 34% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Kryvbas KR 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Kryvbas KR 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Friday 2 Dec 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 34% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Chornomorets 0.99 / Kryvbas KR 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.691 / def 1.179 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.753 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Kryvbas KR xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 2 December 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 34% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.75x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 31/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
34%
2.97
31%
3.26
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.02
1.03
Kryvbas KR xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.03 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 4D 7L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.07 for Kryvbas KR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chornomorets's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kryvbas KR's season.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Chornomorets's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.71 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Kryvbas KR go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
0
Draws
5
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Chornomorets 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 29%, Kryvbas KR 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chornomorets) and 43% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 57% of games; Kryvbas KR in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 43% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chornomorets's recent games and 43% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.99 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.03 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.69 / defence 1.18 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 34% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 43%, Kryvbas KR 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.93 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.