Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Mariupol at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees FC Mariupol travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Mariupol — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Chornomorets have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chornomorets register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Mariupol in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chornomorets, 0 for FC Mariupol and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC Mariupol trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chornomorets 61% and FC Mariupol 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chornomorets 72% | FC Mariupol 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.55 xG and FC Mariupol 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.937 / defence 1.499 | FC Mariupol attack 0.940 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.218. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Chornomorets games / 18 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 23% | FC Mariupol 42%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | FC Mariupol 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Mariupol as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chornomorets (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Mariupol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | FC Mariupol 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 23% | FC Mariupol 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Chornomorets 1.55 / FC Mariupol 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.937 / def 1.499 | FC Mariupol attack 0.940 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: FC Mariupol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FC Mariupol xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
Where is Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol part of?
Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 35% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Mariupol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chornomorets and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Mariupol?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 0 | FC Mariupol 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and FC Mariupol in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.94) and FC Mariupol's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Mariupol's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Mariupol Win
35%
2.87
23%
4.33
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
3.26
1.72
FC Mariupol xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.72 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 3W 5D 10L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Mariupol's form line: 2W 2D 14L from 18 games, 0.44 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.78 PPG, FC Mariupol on 0.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
On the road, FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.44 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.17 scored and 2.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Mariupol in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or FC Mariupol away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and FC Mariupol runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2021, when FC Mariupol 2-3 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and FC Mariupol?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chornomorets at 67%, FC Mariupol at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Chornomorets and 67% for FC Mariupol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play FC Mariupol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chornomorets's games and 67% of FC Mariupol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Chornomorets's matches and 67% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Chornomorets and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 19, as Chornomorets and FC Mariupol drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.55 xG and FC Mariupol 1.72 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Mariupol landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.94 / defence 1.50 against FC Mariupol attack 0.94 / defence 1.49, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 23% | FC Mariupol 42%, with FC Mariupol to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 72%, FC Mariupol 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.78 PPG, FC Mariupol 0.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.