Chornomorets 0-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 37%, yet in-form Dnipro-1 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dnipro Arena plays host to Chornomorets versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 31 July 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Premier League outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Dnipro-1 are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.10 xG and Dnipro-1 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.007 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 0.895. Dnipro-1 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Chornomorets games / 1 Dnipro-1 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 37% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 33%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Dnipro-1 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dnipro-1 (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 37% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Chornomorets 1.10 / Dnipro-1 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.007 / def 1.287 | league avg home 0.878 / away 0.895 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dnipro-1 xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Chornomorets 0 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 37% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.01x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.38
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.14
1.04
Dnipro-1 xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.04 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dnipro-1's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Dnipro-1 in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dnipro-1 go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
0
Draws
6
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 100% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Chornomorets's matches and 100% of Dnipro-1's.
Do Chornomorets and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 0-3 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.10 xG and Dnipro-1 1.04 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.01 / defence 1.29, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 37% | Draw 30% | Dnipro-1 33%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dnipro-1 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 100%, Dnipro-1 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dnipro-1 scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.