Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Yeni Malatyaspor at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yeni Malatyaspor host Sivasspor at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Yeni Malatyaspor — All Games: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Yeni Malatyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 1W 0D 2L at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 0W 3D 2L from 5 Süper Lig matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Yeni Malatyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yeni Malatyaspor register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 80% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Yeni Malatyaspor in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yeni Malatyaspor 40% and Sivasspor 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 60% | Sivasspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.61 xG and Sivasspor 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 1.238 / defence 1.747 | Sivasspor attack 0.841 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.072. Data: 5 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 5 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Sivasspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yeni Malatyaspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yeni Malatyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 67% | Sivasspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.61 / Sivasspor 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 1.238 / def 1.747 | Sivasspor attack 0.841 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Yeni Malatyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sivasspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 0 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yeni Malatyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yeni Malatyaspor's attack at 1.24x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Yeni Malatyaspor's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yeni Malatyaspor Win
39%
2.57
24%
4.26
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.57
Sivasspor xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.57 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Yeni Malatyaspor have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 0D 3L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor's form line: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Yeni Malatyaspor are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Goals in Recent Form
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 80%.
Defensively: Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Yeni Malatyaspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Sivasspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Sivasspor 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 40%, Sivasspor 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 40% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 80% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent games and 40% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.61 xG and Sivasspor 1.57 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Yeni Malatyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 1.24 / defence 1.75 against Sivasspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 38%, with Yeni Malatyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 60%, Sivasspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Yeni Malatyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yeni Malatyaspor managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.