Trabzonspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Rizespor travel to Medical Park Stadyumu to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 2W 2D 0L at Medical Park Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 0W 0D 5L from 5 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 70% and Rizespor 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trabzonspor 60% | Rizespor 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.39 xG and Rizespor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.168 / defence 1.165 | Rizespor attack 0.652 / defence 1.684. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.153. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.684 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Trabzonspor games / 10 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 71% | Draw 17% | Rizespor 12%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Rizespor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 100% | Rizespor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 71% | Draw 17% | Rizespor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 53% | xG Trabzonspor 2.39 / Rizespor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.168 / def 1.165 | Rizespor attack 0.652 / def 1.684 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Rizespor xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 71% chance of winning, Rizespor a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trabzonspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Rizespor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.85
12%
8.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.26
0.88
Rizespor xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
8.35
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
9%
10.90
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
1%
91.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.88 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 7W 3D 0L from 10 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 8L across 10 games — 0.40 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 games (2.40 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Rizespor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rizespor in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Rizespor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Rizespor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trabzonspor at 100%, Rizespor at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Trabzonspor and 75% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Trabzonspor's games and 50% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Trabzonspor's matches and 75% of Rizespor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.39 xG and Rizespor 0.88 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Rizespor attack 0.65 / defence 1.68, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 71% | Draw 17% | Rizespor 12%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 60%, Rizespor 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.40. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.