Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Trabzonspor welcome Konyaspor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 5, Konyaspor 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 62% versus Konyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.96 xG and Konyaspor 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.422 / defence 0.711 | Konyaspor attack 0.777 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Trabzonspor games / 42 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 69% | Draw 20% | Konyaspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Konyaspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 50% | Konyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 69% | Draw 20% | Konyaspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 41% | xG Trabzonspor 1.96 / Konyaspor 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.422 / def 0.711 | Konyaspor attack 0.777 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Konyaspor xG
41%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 69% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Trabzonspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Trabzonspor 5W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 4W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
69%
1.46
20%
4.98
11%
8.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.61
0.65
Konyaspor xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
8.83
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
2%
62.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.65 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 42 games, going 25W 10D 7L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.07 PPG from 42 outings (11W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 13W 6D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 games (2.02 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.14 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Konyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 57%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Trabzonspor) and 57% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Trabzonspor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 57% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.