Trabzonspor 1-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Giresunspor meet at Medical Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Medical Park Stadyumu this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medical Park Stadyumu.
Giresunspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Trabzonspor's favour (2.30 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trabzonspor, 0 for Giresunspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Giresunspor half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Giresunspor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 52% | Giresunspor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.18 xG and Giresunspor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.082 / defence 0.814 | Giresunspor attack 0.852 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.090. Data: 21 Trabzonspor games / 21 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 46% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Giresunspor 4.17. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Giresunspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 46% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Trabzonspor 1.18 / Giresunspor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.082 / def 0.814 | Giresunspor attack 0.852 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Giresunspor xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 46% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Trabzonspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Giresunspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Giresunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trabzonspor's attack rating (1.08) and Giresunspor's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.85x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.28
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
1.94
0.76
Giresunspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.76 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 15W 5D 1L from 21 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 10L across 21 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Giresunspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 7W 3D 0L from 10 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Giresunspor's away record stands at 3W 2D 5L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 0.95 scored and 1.00 conceded. Trabzonspor's scoring rate against Giresunspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 15W 5D 1L in their last 21 games (2.38 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.40 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 3-0 on 5 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
0
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Giresunspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2023, when Giresunspor 2-4 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Giresunspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 50%, Giresunspor 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 30% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Giresunspor in 40%; Giresunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 30% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 30% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Giresunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor and Giresunspor finished level at 1-1 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.18 xG and Giresunspor 0.76 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Giresunspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 46% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 24%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 52%, Giresunspor 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Giresunspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.